ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008 MARIE HAS LOST ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INTERMITTENT FLAREUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-OCCUR WITHIN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER SINCE THE SYSTEM LACKS PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT CAN NO LONGER BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM AROUND 1400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 25 TO 30 KT. ALLOWING FOR SOME FURTHER SPINDOWN OF THE CYCLONE SINCE THAT TIME LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE REMAINING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST OR 280/3. THE TRACK MODELS INSIST ON A CYCLONICALLY LOOPING MOTION WITHIN THE FLOW WEST OF NORBERT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW. THIS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 18.9N 123.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 18.7N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 125.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/0600Z 17.3N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC