ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008 A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT MARIE WAS A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THEN. THEREFORE IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS SPUN DOWN TO DEPRESSION INTENSITY BY NOW AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND MARIE WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/2. MARIE IS STILL RESPONDING...SLIGHTLY...TO THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY AS MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MARIE OR ITS REMNANT TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN BEING DRAGGED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF NORBERT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 18.7N 123.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.0N 124.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/0000Z 17.4N 125.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/1200Z 16.6N 126.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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