ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0300Z SUGGESTED THAT MARIE WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM AT THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH RAIN CONTAMINATION ISSUES TYPICALLY MAKE THIS DEPRESSION-STORM CALL DIFFICULT. SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE SEPARATING. ALTHOUGH MARIE HAS PROBABLY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...WE'LL HOLD IT AS A STORM UNTIL WE ARE A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN. A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY WITHIN A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED...IN ACCORD WITH THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES PLACED THE CENTER OF MARIE A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES TO CONFIRM THIS ESTIMATE...HOWEVER. ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TAKES MARIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE TURNING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE EAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE INDEED SEPARATING... THEN MARIE MIGHT WELL MAKE LESS WESTWARD PROGRESS THAN THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LIES ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.3N 123.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.9N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 07/1800Z 17.3N 125.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0600Z 16.6N 125.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC