ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN TO 2.0...OR 30 KT. HOWEVER...MARIE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW 35 KT. MARIE WILL BE KEPT AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY THAT IT HAS INDEED WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO INGEST INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO ITS CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS INDICATED BY THE VARIOUS SHIPS MODEL PARAMETERS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MARIE TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. FIXES FROM AN 1812 UTC ASCAT PASS AND 2335 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATE THAT MARIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO AT 250/3. AS MARIE SPINS DOWN...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALMOST EVERY DYNAMICAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF MARIE WILL BE DRAWN IN SOME WAY BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE EXPANDING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NORBERT OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN AT THAT POINT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES DISSIPATION WITHIN THE ITCZ BY DAY 4. ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.4N 123.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 124.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 17.7N 125.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0000Z 17.2N 126.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/STEWART NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC