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Tropical Storm MARIE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MINIMAL
AND IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED
TO 35 KT.  HOWEVER THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE
IMAGES HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHEN AN ASCAT
PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 40 KT SO THE LATTER
VALUE IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED.  SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH MARIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE STABLE AND DRY AIR THAT THE
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  MARIE IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 2 DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS FORECAST...ICON.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT MARIE
COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

AFTER THE MAINLY NORTHWARD TREK OBSERVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR
SO...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 270/2.  ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR A DEEP TROPICAL
CYCLONE...MARIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DEEP SYSTEM.  IN FACT...SOME
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DECOUPLING OF MARIE WITH THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD AND EVEN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF NORBERT WHILE THE
MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS AND IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 18.9N 122.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 18.9N 122.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 18.8N 123.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 18.6N 124.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.7N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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