Tropical Storm MARIE

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TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008
 
MARIE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DIMINISHING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD APPEARANCE IS
STARTING TO RESEMBLE A TYPICAL WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
OVER COOLER WATERS.  A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...THE STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER RATHER COOL
SSTS INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MARIE WILL BECOME UNGLUED FASTER
THAN SHOWN BELOW...WHICH WOULD BE THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE
SHIPS/LGEM.
 
MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 000/2. 
BY LATE TOMORROW THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...IN TWO OR THREE DAYS...THE
GFDL/ECMWF/UKMET SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS
THE LARGE-SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY...PERHAPS
PARTIALLY DUE TO TD 15-E. OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/HWRF/
NOGAPS...SHOW LESS INTERACTION AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION.  IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDED SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH...AND I
DON'T SEE A GOOD REASON TO GO AGAINST THAT GUIDANCE AS THIS STORM
HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO MOVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE UKMET.   
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 18.5N 122.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.7N 122.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.8N 123.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 18.9N 123.9W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 125.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N 127.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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