ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008 MARIE LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LESS CONCENTRATED CLOUD MASS NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH WEAKER DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT IN LINE WITH TAFB/SAB ESTIMATES...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS AFTER LOOKING AT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES. MARIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALREADY WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 000/2....BUT IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE NOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS-DEFINED. ONLY A SLOW MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS LONG AS MARIE REMAINS IN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF MARIE ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AND CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. LATER ON...THE CYCLONE MAY ACQUIRE A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THE CYCLONE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH VERTICAL DEPTH TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD...LIKE THE HWRF/NOGAPS/GFDN SOLUTIONS. THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MODEL YESTERDAY TO ACCURATELY FORECAST THE RECENT SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 18.4N 122.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 18.9N 122.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 19.1N 123.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 19.3N 125.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC