ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2008 A TRMM PASS AT 10Z HELPED FIX THE CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS COOLED AND EXPANDED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL 45 KT...BUT A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z DIDN'T SHOW ANY WINDS ABOVE 30 KT. EVEN ALLOWING FOR THIS INSTRUMENT'S LOW BIAS REQUIRES A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATERS OF AROUND 26C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH ARE LIKELY TOO COOL TO ALLOW MUCH STRENGTHENING BUT TOO WARM TO KILL IT OFF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. ONLY A WEAK RIDGE SEPARATES MARIE FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...AND A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY STALLING THE CYCLONE AND THE UKMET SHOWING THE FASTEST MOTION TO THE WEST. THE NOGAPS...WHICH YESTERDAY AGREED WITH THE ECMWF...NOW IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET...LEAVING THE ECMWF AS AN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN 36-48 HOURS WHEN THE SECOND TROUGH PASSES BY...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.0N 120.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 18.0N 122.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 123.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 18.0N 126.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 18.0N 128.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC