ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2008 A MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 1430Z INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIE REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED AT 18Z AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE MARIE REACHES SUB-26C WATERS. SINCE THE WATERS ARE ALREADY FAIRLY COOL...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE A LITTLE LOWER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...ALTHOUGH THIS ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT APPARENT. A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT STEERING FLOW. AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST LIFTS OUT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT WESTWARD. THE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE SLOWER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS...KEEP MARIE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BASICALLY STALL WHEN A SECOND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MORE WESTWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...UKMET...GFDL AND HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.8N 117.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 118.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.7N 119.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 18.9N 120.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 18.9N 121.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC