Tropical Storm LOWELL
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TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008
0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 6 16 23 31
TROP DEPRESSION 1 5 18 31 39 42 43
TROPICAL STORM 87 78 68 55 42 34 25
HURRICANE 13 16 11 8 4 2 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 14 10 7 4 2 1
HUR CAT 2 1 2 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 55KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ISLA CLARION 34 2 12(14) 4(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23)
$$
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