ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2008 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LOWELL'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT A SECOND MID-LEVEL OR LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER UP THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 26.5N 109.5W. THIS ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT LOWELL IS QUICKLY LOSING STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE ADVISORY IS BEING HELD LOWER AT 25 KT DUE TO THE LINEAR/SQUALL LINE APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF SINALOA IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS MODELS. RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6 HORUS OR SO ONCE LOWELL MOVES INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 24.9N 108.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 26.5N 108.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 24HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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