ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH LOWELL TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE...OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER SKELETAL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD HELP FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF LOWELL OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOWELL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 045/7...THOUGH THIS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EITHER NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH...ASSUMING IT REMAINS A COHERENT SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TOTALLY DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...IT IS POSSIBLE LOWELL COULD TAKE A RIGHT TURN AND BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE GFDL MODEL. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF LOWELL STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IS LOW...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL LOWELL PASSES. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 23.1N 111.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 24.2N 110.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 109.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
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