ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132008 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2008 MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES...NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A MASS OF CONVECTION THAT IS VERY COLD BUT RELATIVELY SHAPELESS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...BUT THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE GFDL SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING LOWELL UP TO ABOUT 60 KT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER TWO MODELS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING. LOWELL IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS...WITH ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOWING A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA THAT TURNS LOWELL NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY THREE. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND ECMWF TURN LOWELL SO SHARPLY THAT IT RECURVES SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL LIES ON THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD SEPARATE BY DAY THREE...AND THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER TERM TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 16.6N 107.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 17.3N 108.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 18.2N 110.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 18.7N 112.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 19.4N 113.4W 60 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 114.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 22.5N 114.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:42 UTC