ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122008 800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2008 KARINA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 25 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. WITH THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS...STABLE AIR...AND STRONG SHEAR...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/4. NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.2N 114.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.3N 114.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.3N 115.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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