ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008 THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE... HOWEVER SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT IS VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF ROSALIA. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999.5 MB WAS RECEIVED A FEW HOURS AGO FROM A STATION NEAR BURRO COVE...JUST SOUTH OF MULEGE. THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR THE SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM PRESSURE ON THE EARLIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT. JULIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/10 KT. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED AS JULIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL HEADING DURING THE 2-3 DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS TO NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL PREDICT A SEPARATION OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER TURNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH JULIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOON...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS JULIO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 27.5N 112.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 28.6N 112.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 29.5N 113.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 29.9N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/1800Z 30.2N 113.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC