ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008 THE CENTER OF JULIO REMAINS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. AN 0934 UTC AMSRE-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LIKELY REMAINS OVER LAND. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN JULIO AS A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/12. JULIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A DECREASE IN JULIO'S FORWARD MOTION AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JULIO MAY CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SLOWS JULIO DOWN AND KEEPS THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. SINCE THE CENTER OF JULIO MAY MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS JULIO AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE CENTER MAY BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE GLOBAL MODES PREDICT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN JULIO. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT JULIO COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM IN THE SHORT-TERM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND HAS ISSUED A NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.8N 112.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 28.1N 112.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 29.1N 113.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.7N 113.3W 25 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 30.1N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/1200Z 30.3N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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