ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008 THE CENTER OF JULIO HAS REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF JULIO PASSED VERY NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 19Z. A COUPLE OF UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATIONS HAVE REPORTED MINIMUM PRESSURES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE ACCURACY OF THESE MEASUREMENTS IS UNKNOWN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. JULIO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE GFS... UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL PREDICT THAT JULIO WILL SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER... THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A SLOW DOWN IN 2-3 DAYS AS JULIO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. MOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 23.2N 110.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 24.4N 111.0W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1800Z 25.9N 111.9W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0600Z 27.4N 112.6W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/1800Z 28.4N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC