ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008 STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO PULSE WEST OF THE CENTER...WHICH REMAINS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 1300 UTC SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 30 KT. SINCE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE STILL BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER... A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS...MORE STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE OF THE MORE BULLISH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 315/10...THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT ESTIMATE. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO STEERING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION BEYOND A DAY OR TWO WITH THE GFDL/HWRF MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE NOGAPS/GFS. I'M INCLINED TO TO LEAN ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION AND THE LIMITED WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 19.5N 108.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 21.7N 110.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 111.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 24.5N 112.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 27.0N 113.5W 35 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1800Z 29.0N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC