Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008

STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO PULSE WEST OF THE CENTER...WHICH
REMAINS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 1300 UTC SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST
30 KT.  SINCE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE STILL BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT...BUT
THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND
SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER... A
COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS...MORE STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE OF THE MORE BULLISH STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
315/10...THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT
ESTIMATE.  A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO
STEERING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH
IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION BEYOND A DAY OR
TWO WITH THE GFDL/HWRF MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE
NOGAPS/GFS.  I'M INCLINED TO TO LEAN ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION AND THE LIMITED
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET MODEL.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 19.5N 108.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.7N 110.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 111.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 112.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 27.0N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 29.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
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