ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008 ISELLE'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...A 15/1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME CREDIBLE 35- TO 40-KT SURFACE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN LIMITED TO ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WIND DATA AND CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MOSTLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS DIFLUENT...20- TO 30-KT WINDS OVERSPREADING THE CYCLONE HAS CREATED MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.6N 111.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.8N 111.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 18.1N 113.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 18.3N 114.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC