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Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008
 
ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE HAS DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS BENEATH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THIS TREND.  WITH
COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND GENEVIEVE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW.  THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE
GENEVIEVE IN 2-3 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PROVIDES POINTS OUT
TO DAY 4. 
 
THE LAST FEW MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
TURNED TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.  SOON TO
BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM...GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 16.9N 122.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 124.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 17.2N 126.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.4N 128.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.6N 129.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 18.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
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