ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WHILE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE MID- AND LOW- LEVEL CENTER ARE BECOMING DECOUPLED. EARLIER QUIKSCAT INDICATE THAT WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR. WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS GUIDANCE IS IN LESS AGREEMENT BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW MOVING WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.3N 121.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 125.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 31/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:37 UTC