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Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2008
 
GENEVIEVE HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS COVER A SMALL AREA AND ARE ASYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED. 
WHILE DVORAK CI NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM TAFB AND SAB...A
1553Z SSMIS PASS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A RAGGED EYE MAY
BE FORMING.  AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM A 1258Z PASS WERE ABOUT
50 KT FROM THE CIMSS AND CIRA TECHNIQUES.  AN ASCAT PASS AT 1642Z
DID NOT SHOW ANY GALE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THIS INSTRUMENT MAY HAVE
PROBLEMS IN DISCERNING STRONG WINDS WITH A SMALL CYCLONE.  THE
INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT.
 
GENEVIEVE HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 6 KT AT A 280 DEGREES HEADING.  THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...MINUS THE GFS AT THE EXTENDED RANGE.
 
GENEVIEVE LIKELY HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN THE NEXT DAY
TO FURTHER STRENTHEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE CLOSED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  BEGINNING IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...GENEVIEVE SHOULD BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY COOLER
WATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO ABOVE 55 KT...THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF GENEVIEVE BECOMING A HURRICANE BASED UPON OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 15.4N 112.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 114.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.7N 115.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 16.1N 117.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
 
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