ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008 800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008 THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN WATCHING FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY OBTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SAME SYSTEM ALMOST BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA A FEW DAYS AGO. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF BANDED DEEP CONVECTION FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT IN LINE WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES. A SLOW INCREASE IN WINDS IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE FASTER THEREAFTER AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS IN 4 DAYS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. HWRF/GFDL DO NOT INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM ON THEIR CURRENT INTEGRATION BUT HAVE INTENSIFIED IT QUITE A BIT BEFOREHAND. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12. A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO. FOR THE FIRST ADVISORY... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE COULD AFFECT THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 13.4N 100.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.6N 102.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 13.9N 104.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.4N 107.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 14.9N 108.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 16.6N 114.2W 60 KT 120HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:37 UTC