ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008 ALTHOUGH IT APPEARED THAT FAUSTO HAD REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY YESTERDAY...THE EYE BECAME MORE DEFINED AGAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 85 KT. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL...24C OCEAN TEMPERATURES...FAUSTO HAS APPARENTLY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW- SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CAN STRENGTHEN ANY MORE GIVEN THE MORE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS... AND THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING. FAUSTO WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING IN AROUND 3 DAYS. INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD...305/11. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS ALSO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 20.1N 115.4W 85 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 20.8N 117.0W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 21.6N 119.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 22.3N 121.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 22.8N 122.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 25.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0600Z 26.5N 131.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:36 UTC