ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008 FAUSTO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A BANDING EYE IN RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT AS A COMPROMISE. FAUSTO HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE IT CROSSES THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 48 HOURS...FAUSTO WILL ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY FALLING SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SO BRISK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. FAUSTO APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE...AND TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW CYCLONE. TRACK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF FAUSTO'S STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE FAUSTO MAINTAINING APPRECIABLE VERTICAL DEPTH DURING THIS TIME SINCE. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS ALL OF WHICH HANG ON TO A RATHER DEEP SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 14.8N 109.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.4N 110.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.3N 111.9W 80 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 115.3W 65 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 124.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 23.0N 128.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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