ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008 FAUSTO APPEARED EARLIER TO BE STRENGTHENING...BUT FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SEEMED. IN ADDITION...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 45-50 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT. THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...HOWEVER...WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WEAKENS A LITTLE. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN HEADING ARE SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 11.6N 104.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.3N 108.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.8N 109.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 13.3N 111.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:36 UTC