ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008 ELIDA IS NOW A MOSTLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS USING A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS SPAN A WIDE RANGE...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THOSE VALUES AND IS SET TO 35 KT. ELIDA IS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 23 CELSIUS...AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GET MUCH WARMER ANYTIME SOON...SO THE SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MORE THAN HALF A DAY OR SO. THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISES REGARDING THE PATH OF ELIDA. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/13...AND THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 18.0N 128.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 130.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.8N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 20/0600Z 17.7N 135.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 137.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 143.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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