ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008 ELIDA IS TRYING TO FIGHT OFF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT RECENTLY HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT...BUT THE INTENSITY TREND IS SHARPLY DOWNWARD SINCE THE UNDERLYING WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT GET ANY WARMER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...DEEP CONVECTION MIGHT BE JUST ABOUT GONE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LONG ELIDA CAN REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD HAPPEN SOONER. THE MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD OR 270/13...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS ELIDA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 17.6N 127.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 129.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 131.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 17.1N 134.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 23/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC