ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008 DESPITE TRAVERSING OVER COOLER WATERS...ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH -80C COLD TOPS. AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICTED AN IRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CLOUD CANOPY. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS AGAIN BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...65 KT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME...SO A STEADY WEAKENING IN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AN UNCHANGED 270/13...AND THE TRACK FORECAST AND PHILOSOPHY ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PRACTICALLY DUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE VARIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 17.3N 124.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 17.3N 126.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 17.2N 129.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 16.8N 134.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 16.5N 139.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 151.5W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC