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Hurricane ELIDA

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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
 
ELIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION...EVEN STILL WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN EMBEDDED EYE
FEATURE...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS A
LITTLE BIT TILTED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LAGGING SLIGHTLY
BEHIND TO THE EAST.  THE OVERALL SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS SLOWLY
DEGRADING...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...A BLEND
OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS.  WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL
THAT STRONG ALONG THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST TRACK...BUT
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...SO A STEADY
DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST.  ONE MIGHT EXPECT THAT A
RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE SUCH AS ELIDA COULD WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY
OVER COOLER WATERS...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT
FOR THE SHIPS THAT OFTEN DEPICTS WEAKENING OF EASTERN PACIFIC
SYSTEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...SUGGESTS IT COULD HANG ON AS A
TROPICAL STORM FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
A LITTLE BEYOND THAT.  THAT IS THE SOLUTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS ABOUT 270/13...AND
THE TRACK FORECAST AND SUPPORTING REASONING ARE UNCHANGED.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD HEAD ALMOST DUE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH WHEN IT IS A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHER WEST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HWRF AND GFDL
TRACKS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 17.2N 123.3W    70 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.1N 130.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.9N 132.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 138.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 150.0W    25 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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