ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008 THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS SYMETRIC WITH TIME AS EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE STORM. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS...WHICH DECREASED TO 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE POINTS TO ELIDA CONTINING ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. AS A RESULT... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 65 KT. THERE IS OVERALL AGREEMENT WITHIN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT ELIDA WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE STORM MOTION UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS INTO PLACE BY 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT THAT POINT...ELIDA SHOULD TAKE AN ALMOST DUE WESTWARD PATH. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE THAT TAKES ELIDA ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK OWING TO THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CYCLONE. DATA FROM A 1322 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL 34 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHERN SEMICRICLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.5N 113.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 115.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.3N 117.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.9N 123.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 18.1N 128.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 132.6W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 17.5N 135.9W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER BANN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC