ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008 THE STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION OVER ELIDA TEMPORARILY ABATED A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE RESUMING NEAR THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM BURST WITH NO SIGNS OF AN EYEWALL FORMING. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. ELIDA HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT WITH WARM WATER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM WILL FALL JUST SHY OF BECOMING A HURRICANE OR EVEN START TO WEAKEN SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INITIALLY...SHOWING THE STORM FLIRTING WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND THEN END UP CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELIDA REMAINS ON TRACK...290/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UKMET SHOWS THE WEAKEST RIDGE...ALLOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS TURNS ELIDA ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WESTWARD...PERHAPS DUE TO A RATHER WEAK INITIAL VORTEX IN THE MODEL. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.6N 105.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 17.0N 117.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 125.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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