ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008 SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND ALSO ALONG THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...WHERE THE OUTFLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST IMPROVED. HOWEVER...THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR TO POSITION THE SURFACE CENTER JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CANOPY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...USING A BLEND OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...HWRF...AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. AFTER A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS ELIDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS WERE WEIGHTED HEAVILY IN ESTIMATING THE INITIAL MOTION AT 290/14. ELIDA CONTINUES TO TRACK WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO. A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SITUATED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT WESTWARD TO A POSITION ALONG 130W IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS...PROMPTING ELIDA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODELS...GFDL...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.8N 103.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 15.6N 104.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 16.3N 106.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 16.8N 108.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 17.1N 110.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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