ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008 A TIMELY 1227 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE HELPED TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF ELIDA'S CENTER THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. ELIDA'S OUTFLOW REMAINS A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEPS ELIDA BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. MEANWHILE...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS STEADY STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE PREDICTS A 33% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR GREATER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14 KT. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...WHICH SLOWS THE STORM DOWN AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONGER CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF ELIDA. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.2N 98.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 13.9N 100.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.3N 106.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC