ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008 DOUGLAS IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMING APART. A SERIES OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING OFF TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 330/8...WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN STEADILY DYING OFF. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT ABOUT 0500 UTC STILL INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS GENERATING SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING AT THAT TIME...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW. THE RECENT RAPID DECLINE IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS DOUGLAS WILL BE A DEPRESSION SHORTLY...AND IT SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.6N 109.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 109.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 112.1W 25 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 113.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z 20.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:32 UTC