ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0958Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT CRISTINA AS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE. 20 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT. PERSISTENT SHEAR...A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REDUCE CRISTINA TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THIS IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS AND A 0621Z AMSU-B IMAGE...CRISTINA APPEARS TO BE INCREASING A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CRISTINA TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.3N 131.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.2N 132.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 13.8N 134.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 02/0000Z 13.6N 136.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 02/1200Z 13.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1200Z 13.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:31 UTC