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Tropical Storm CRISTINA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008
200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS A RATHER SHARP EDGE TO THE
HIGH CLOUD MASS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...INDICATIVE OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM BORIS LOCATED NOT FAR
TO CRISTINA'S EAST.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR PATTERN
MEASUREMENT ARE YIELDING INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT.  HOWEVER THE
DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AS WELL AS
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...ARGUE FOR A SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEED. 
THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. 
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND A RELATIVELY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS IS SHOWN IN THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE SHIPS PREDICTION... AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS
INTENSITY FORECAST...ICON.

INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 260/9.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN CRISTINA AND BORIS...IN TERMS OF
STEERING.  THEREFORE THE PRINCIPAL STEERING MECHANISM IS THE
EASTERLY CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A
CONTINUED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 14.2N 129.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.9N 131.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 13.6N 133.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 141.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 13.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/0600Z 13.5N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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