ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008 THE CENTER OF CRISTINA HAS TUCKED WELL UNDERNEATH THE CANOPY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO A 3.0 FROM TAFB AND REMAINED A 2.5 FROM SAB. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE VECTORS WITH ONE OF 40 KT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT. THE ASCAT OBSERVATIONS ALSO ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 34 KT WIND RADII. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT 265/8. A CONTINUATION OF JUST-SOUTH-OF-DUE-WESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FROM THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF CRISTINA IS ANTICIPATED. AFTER TWO DAYS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF CRISTINA WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED ALONG BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THIS EVENING AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. WHILE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPINGING UPON CRISTINA...THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ARE THE RATHER COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIRMASS. SLOW DECAY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW THEREAFTER. THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 14.3N 129.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 14.1N 130.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 13.9N 133.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 13.7N 135.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 13.6N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/0000Z 13.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 05/0000Z 13.5N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN NNNN
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