ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008 MICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE WITH -80C CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVEMENT AND BELIEVABLE 40 KT WINDS RETRIEVED FROM A 1402Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CALLING FOR LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CRISTINA...AND ULTIMATELY...TO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFS...UKM AND ECMWF...ARE INDICATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH TIME. APPARENTLY...THIS IS DUE TO A WEAKER CYCLONE REFLECTION IN THE FIELDS AND AN OBVIOUS INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE MODELS AND IS NUDGED CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL. THESE MODELS PAINT A MORE ACCURATE PICTURE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 14.6N 125.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 14.7N 126.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 14.9N 128.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.0N 130.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 132.4W 30 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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