Hurricane BORIS

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HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE EYE OF BORIS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED
IN SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT BORIS LOOKS
EVEN STRONGER WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  ALTHOUGH CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY... 
THE INTENSITY WILL ONLY BE BUMPED BACK UP TO 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN THAT THE
CYCLONE IS PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MAY NOT BE EFFECTIVELY
MIXING ITS STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE.  
 
BORIS IS CONTINUING A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER...FORCING THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE
STORM WILL ALSO LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER IN A FEW DAYS...MEANING THE
SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED MORE BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGING.  
COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
 
THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF BORIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY
FAST DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS NO LONGER
PARALLELING THE STRONG SST GRADIENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
AND INSTEAD MOVING INTO THE COLDER WATER QUICKLY.  ALL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH
RELATIVELY RAPIDLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.   IF
BORIS DOES NOT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE
COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 15.9N 126.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 16.4N 127.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 16.9N 128.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 17.1N 129.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.7N 133.1W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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