Tropical Storm BORIS
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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS ON
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5
AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH BORIS IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO DECREASE SO A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM IS
POSSIBLE. BOTH HWRF AND GFDL INSIST ON SOME STRENGTHENING BUT THE
WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL.
BORIS IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. DUE TO THE
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF
BORIS...GLOBAL MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENTS BUT
MAINTAIN BORIS SOUTH OF A RIDGE. THEREFORE...A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 14.8N 120.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.7N 122.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 14.6N 123.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 14.6N 124.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
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FORECASTER AVILA
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