Tropical Storm BORIS

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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
 
BORIS' OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT.  
WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION...BORIS STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  INTERESTINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...SHOW LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING WHILE THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS...HWRF AND
GFDL...BOTH SHOW BORIS INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 80 KT.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING
LATER TODAY.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BORIS BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. 
 
BORIS REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS
KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING...275/11.  THIS
OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY EAST OF
BORIS.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS NO LONGER
ABRUPTLY TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST.  RATHER...THEY
ESSENTIALLY SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING STATIONARY BEYOND 72 HOURS. 
THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEING A LITTLE NORTH AND A
LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED IN
THIS DIRECTION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 14.9N 119.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 120.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.0N 122.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 14.9N 123.8W    55 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 14.7N 125.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 14.5N 127.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 129.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER RHOME
 
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