ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008 THE RAGGED EYE VISIBLE EARLIER HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY NEW CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH EXCELLENT BANDING ALOFT IS APPARENT IN AN AMSU PASS AT 0045 UTC. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...A CIMSS ADT OF 65 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 66 KT. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS NOT CONCLUSIVE BUT SUGGESTS A SMALL DISLOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER CENTERS...IN LINE WITH THE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL...INDICATE A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHING WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 27C WATERS...AND THIS GUIDANCE IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD...HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. BORIS IS SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW BORIS TURNING BACK EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. I NOTE THAT THE GFS IS ALREADY TOO SLOW WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION...AND MAY BE OVERDOING THE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IN PARTICULAR TO THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 14.8N 118.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 14.8N 119.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 14.8N 120.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 14.7N 122.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 123.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 14.0N 128.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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