ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT ALMA HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS. THE CENTER PASSED NEAR TEGUCIGALPA A FEW HOURS AGO WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS REPORTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...WITH THESE WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING ONLY IN BANDS OF SQUALLS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/10. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE ENVELOPE...CALLING FOR ALMA TO BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SINCE ALMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE MOSTLY OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 48 HR. THAT BEING SAID...ALMA IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. SO...IF THE CYCLONE SPENDS MORE TIME OVER WATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ALMA OR ITS REMNANTS...BUT IT ALSO COULD BE A SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE BROAD MONSOON FLOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.6N 87.6W 25 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 30/1800Z 15.9N 88.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.3N 89.2W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 31/1800Z 18.3N 90.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:29 UTC