ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008 800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALMA...THE FIRST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NAMED CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OUTFLOW IS ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED. BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS. ALMA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS...STEERED BY A LIGHT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...AS ALMA MOVES NORTHWARD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DEEP LAYER MEAN LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. BY THEN...ALMA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS BOTH GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS. ALMA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS WHICH COULD REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA CAUSING DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 11.5N 86.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 12.5N 87.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.5N 89.0W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:29 UTC