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Tropical Depression ONE-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR
THE CENTER AND A VIGOROUS BAND WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. 
ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR 03Z...AND THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN INNER WIND CORE.  BASED MAINLY ON THE
ASCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 35 KT ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH...350/4.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC
GYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR 36-48 HR.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST AN INITIAL NORTHWARD
MOTION THAT BECOMES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND MORE
WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...AND IT IS A BIT FASTER THEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE NEW
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN NICARAGUA
IN 18-24 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE
RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK ERRORS COULD
RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH THE
ONLY OBVIOUS NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING LAND INTERACTION.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL...FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF
IT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  HOWEVER...
UNLESS THE SYSTEM GETS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
REACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
ESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 10.9N  86.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 11.8N  87.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 13.3N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 14.9N  88.3W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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