Tropical Storm PALOMA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
2100 UTC THU NOV 06 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 16 30
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 2 25 29
TROPICAL STORM 50 11 7 14 21 47 35
HURRICANE 50 89 93 85 76 13 7
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 47 56 32 34 33 10 6
HUR CAT 2 2 25 35 26 20 2 1
HUR CAT 3 1 7 22 20 17 1 X
HUR CAT 4 1 1 3 5 5 X X
HUR CAT 5 X X 1 1 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 80KT 90KT 90KT 70KT 45KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 2(14) 1(15)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUANAJA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN ANDRES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) 2(21)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 8(28) 1(29)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 11(30) 2(32)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 3(24)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 3(21)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 1 6( 7) 13(20) 12(32) 7(39) 1(40) 1(41)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) 15(33) 14(47) 3(50) X(50)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 1(21) X(21)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) 26(49) 6(55) X(55)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 4(24) X(24)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 6(26) 1(27)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 6 51(57) 21(78) 6(84) 3(87) 1(88) X(88)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 1 20(21) 28(49) 9(58) 4(62) 1(63) X(63)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 6( 6) 22(28) 7(35) 3(38) 1(39) X(39)
MONTEGO BAY 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 11(27) 15(42) 3(45) X(45)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
KINGSTON 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 12(23) 3(26) X(26)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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