Hurricane PALOMA

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HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008
1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS REPORTS FROM
NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42057...INDICATE THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A HURRICANE. AT 2250Z...THE NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED
WIND OF 62 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 74 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
993 MB. ALLOWING FOR A 1 MB PER 10 KT PRESSURE REDUCTION YIELDS AN
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WHICH IS A TYPICAL CENTRAL
PRESSURE FOR A LOW-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOCATED IN THE DEEP
TROPICS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB...PLUS AN EYE FEATURE NOTED IN EARLIER INFRARED IMAGERY AND 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA FURTHER SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A HURRICANE.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH A
WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD CHANNEL NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE EARLIER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT WAS PROBABLY MORE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF
THE INNER-CORE THAN ACTUAL STORM PROPAGATION. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE
UKMET...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKING A VERY SHEARED AND
VERY WEAK SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF
MODELS MOVE A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE
ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST
REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY...AS WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...LEANS
TOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-HWRF SOLUTION IN TAKING A STRONGER AND MORE
VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE INTACT ACROSS CUBA THROUGH 60-72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.

PALOMA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IT IS RARE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR MORE THAN
48 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT PREMISE
AND CALLS FOR THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO END IN 24
HOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...AN EYE FEATURE...A RELATIVELY SMALL
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND A SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER 29C SSTS.
THE GFDL MODEL ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS PALOMA TO 102 KT IN 36
HOURS...WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE
FROM 5 KT TO 25 KT...SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING DAYS 2-5. AS PALOMA PASSES OVER CUBA IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...
LAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WEAKENING CYCLONE...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PALOMA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT
72 HOURS AND BEYOND AFTER IT EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 17.2N  81.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.1N  81.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N  81.5W    95 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.0N  80.8W   100 KT
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 20.7N  79.8W    90 KT
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N  77.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N  74.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0000Z 27.5N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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