Hurricane OMAR
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
2100 UTC WED OCT 15 2008
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 5 12
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 4 14 22
TROPICAL STORM 2 3 8 18 35 47 45
HURRICANE 98 96 92 82 60 35 21
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 53 35 34 40 36 25 17
HUR CAT 2 39 42 35 24 14 7 3
HUR CAT 3 6 17 19 14 7 3 2
HUR CAT 4 1 2 3 3 3 1 X
HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 1 X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85KT 90KT 90KT 85KT 75KT 60KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PONCE 34 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SAN JUAN 34 25 5(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
SAN JUAN 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 78 13(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
SAINT THOMAS 50 25 22(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
SAINT THOMAS 64 6 14(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SAINT CROIX 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
SAINT CROIX 50 67 13(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
SAINT CROIX 64 35 15(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 36 49(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 32(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 21 28(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARBUDA 34 4 23(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
BARBUDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 4 13(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
GUADELOUPE 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
AVES 34 18 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
DOMINICA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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